Is Sealed MTG Dead? Insane Deals Ignored!

If anything has been made clear by the content coming out of this page, it’s that we can’t ignore a good deal. MTG is an expensive game, so getting the most for your money can make a huge difference in your collection. There is a ton of product available for MTG players, meaning there are a lot of poor decisions to make. Ironically, the MTG Sealed market is fantastic for players right now. A ton of products are available that are priced far below the expected value of the cards inside. The strange part is that, even though this is the case, no one is buying these products. Some MTG personalities have outlined this fact and are worried that no one caring about these insane deals may signal the end of sealed products.

Expected Value

As a quick disclaimer, these deals are being assessed with the expected values provided by Dawnglare.com. If these expected values are significantly below the average price on TCGplayer (taking recent sales before the actual market averages), then they may be something you want to consider. As a note, prices vary widely between different sites. As a result, if you check the averages between TCGplayer and Cardkingdom, you would be surprised how wide the range of cards you get may be. For reference, expected value refers to how much money an average product’s contents should retail for once opened (so for booster pack products, it could be worth more or less).

For those who are worried about jank commons adding to these averages, Dawnglare states that they do not consider any cards under $1 when calculating these averages. It isn’t necessarily a free payday, but there’s a very good chance, sometimes guaranteed if you have good channels for selling cards, that you can make a profit!

Exit From Exile (Expected Value: $90?)

We have to admit: we’re not entirely sure how Dawnglare got a $90 value with this one, but the values between Cardkingdom and TCGplayer vary about $15, with Cardkingdom coming in at an expected value of $75. Regardless of this difference, TCGplayer’s sales price for Exit from Exile is precisely $34.12 in recent sales, granting double the original product’s price at a minimum!

Jeska’s WillJeska’s WillChoose one. If you control a commander as you cast this spell, you may choose both instead.
• Add {R} for each card in target opponent's hand.
• Exile the top three cards of your library. You may play them this turn. is the main attraction in this prebuilt Commander deck. The card is worth about $15 on the Secondary Market and can easily win a game of Commander upon resolution. Popularized by the Command Zone, Jeska’s Will can grant its caster a ton of mana and exile three cards for them to spend it on. Considering how easy it is to recast this three mana sorcery with cards like Underworld BreachUnderworld BreachEach nonland card in your graveyard has escape. The escape cost is equal to the card's mana cost plus exile three other cards from your graveyard. (You may cast cards from your graveyard for their escape cost.)
At the beginning of the end step, sacrifice this enchantment., it’s easy to see why this card is one of the most played cards in all of Commander. Other expensive cards from this deck include Delayed Blast FireballDelayed Blast FireballDelayed Blast Fireball deals 2 damage to each opponent and each creature they control. If this spell was cast from exile, it deals 5 damage to each opponent and each creature they control instead.
Foretell {4}{R}{R} (During your turn, you may pay {2} and exile this card from your hand face down. Cast it on a later turn for its foretell cost.), Three VisitsThree VisitsSearch your library for a Forest card, put it onto the battlefield, then shuffle., Passionate ArcheologistPassionate ArcheologistCommander creatures you own have "Whenever you cast a spell from exile, this creature deals damage equal to that spell's mana value to target opponent.", Green SlimeGreen SlimeFlash
When this creature enters, counter target activated or triggered ability from an artifact or enchantment source. If a permanent's ability is countered this way, destroy that permanent.
Foretell {G} (During your turn, you may pay {2} and exile this card from your hand face down. Cast it on a later turn for its foretell cost.) and more.

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Theros Beyond Death (Expected Value: $133)

Theros Beyond Death Booster Boxes are selling on TCGplayer for about $102. This is an excellent price, considering the average expected value of a box of TBD (Theros Beyond Death) is $133. What cards are in this set to support such a large expected value for a core set? You may be surprised!

Kroxa, Titan of Death’s HungerKroxa, Titan of Death’s HungerWhen Kroxa enters, sacrifice it unless it escaped.
Whenever Kroxa enters or attacks, each opponent discards a card, then each opponent who didn't discard a nonland card this way loses 3 life.
Escape—{B}{B}{R}{R}, Exile five other cards from your graveyard. (You may cast this card from your graveyard for its escape cost.), ShadowspearShadowspearEquipped creature gets +1/+1 and has trample and lifelink.
{1}: Permanents your opponents control lose hexproof and indestructible until end of turn.
Equip {2}, Dryad of the Illysian GroveDryad of the Illysian GroveYou may play an additional land on each of your turns.
Lands you control are every basic land type in addition to their other types., Uro, Titan of Nature’s WrathUro, Titan of Nature’s WrathWhen Uro enters, sacrifice it unless it escaped.
Whenever Uro enters or attacks, you gain 3 life and draw a card, then you may put a land card from your hand onto the battlefield.
Escape—{G}{G}{U}{U}, Exile five other cards from your graveyard. (You may cast this card from your graveyard for its escape cost.), Nyxbloom AncientNyxbloom AncientTrample
If you tap a permanent for mana, it produces three times as much of that mana instead., Thassa’s OracleThassa’s OracleWhen this creature enters, look at the top X cards of your library, where X is your devotion to blue. Put up to one of them on top of your library and the rest on the bottom of your library in a random order. If X is greater than or equal to the number of cards in your library, you win the game. (Each {U} in the mana costs of permanents you control counts toward your devotion to blue.), Thassa, Deep DwellingThassa, Deep DwellingIndestructible
As long as your devotion to blue is less than five, Thassa isn't a creature.
At the beginning of your end step, exile up to one other target creature you control, then return that card to the battlefield under your control.
{3}{U}: Tap another target creature., Heliod, Sun-CrownedHeliod, Sun-CrownedIndestructible
As long as your devotion to white is less than five, Heliod isn't a creature.
Whenever you gain life, put a +1/+1 counter on target creature or enchantment you control.
{1}{W}: Another target creature gains lifelink until end of turn. and Underworld BreachUnderworld BreachEach nonland card in your graveyard has escape. The escape cost is equal to the card's mana cost plus exile three other cards from your graveyard. (You may cast cards from your graveyard for their escape cost.)
At the beginning of the end step, sacrifice this enchantment. are all cards that have some relevant value behind them. These all see play in non-rotating formats, giving them a stronger base behind their values. If you’re looking for some of these cards, buying a box outright is a financially savvy way to get some value.

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Core Set 2020 (Expected Value: $144)

Core Set 2020 is easy to forget about. Many MTG core sets were tailored toward players getting into the game. It’s easy to dismiss them as a result. A lot of these cards do not do flashy things, but this set had a few exceptions that allow it to hold an expected value that’s about $17 higher than its asking price of $128, meaning that, on average, you should be making about $17 per box on this product!

Field of the DeadField of the DeadThis land enters tapped.
{T}: Add {C}.
Whenever this land or another land you control enters, if you control seven or more lands with different names, create a 2/2 black Zombie creature token., Sorin, Imperious BloodlordSorin, Imperious Bloodlord+1: Target creature you control gains deathtouch and lifelink until end of turn. If it's a Vampire, put a +1/+1 counter on it.
+1: You may sacrifice a Vampire. When you do, Sorin deals 3 damage to any target and you gain 3 life.
−3: You may put a Vampire creature card from your hand onto the battlefield., Cavalier of ThornsCavalier of ThornsReach
When this creature enters, reveal the top five cards of your library. Put a land card from among them onto the battlefield and the rest into your graveyard.
When this creature dies, you may exile it. If you do, put another target card from your graveyard on top of your library., Yarok, the DesecratedYarok, the DesecratedDeathtouch, lifelink
If a permanent entering causes a triggered ability of a permanent you control to trigger, that ability triggers an additional time., Ajani, Strength of the PrideAjani, Strength of the Pride+1: You gain life equal to the number of creatures you control plus the number of planeswalkers you control.
−2: Create a 2/2 white Cat Soldier creature token named Ajani's Pridemate with "Whenever you gain life, put a +1/+1 counter on this token."
0: If you have at least 15 life more than your starting life total, exile Ajani and each artifact and creature your opponents control., Chandra, Awakened InfernoChandra, Awakened InfernoThis spell can't be countered.
+2: Each opponent gets an emblem with "At the beginning of your upkeep, this emblem deals 1 damage to you."
−3: Chandra deals 3 damage to each non-Elemental creature.
−X: Chandra deals X damage to target creature or planeswalker. If a permanent dealt damage this way would die this turn, exile it instead., and many more cards valued around $10 make this is pretty safe box to open for those fiending for some packs to open.

Allied Fires (Expected Value: $43)

Like the Exit from Exile preconstructed deck, Allied Fires offers a set collection of cards valued at $15 above its asking price of $28. Should you have a consistent way to sell these cards, you could make a pretty good amount of cash.

Expensive cards from this preconstructed deck include four Narset, Parter of Veils, a Steam Vents (which should be incredibly easy to sell), Kenrith, the Returned King, and Ugin, the IneffableUgin, the IneffableColorless spells you cast cost {2} less to cast.
+1: Exile the top card of your library face down and look at it. Create a 2/2 colorless Spirit creature token. When that token leaves the battlefield, put the exiled card into your hand.
−3: Destroy target permanent that's one or more colors.. Should you be able to sell these with ease or are looking for some of the cards for yourself, Allied Fires is a pretty safe buy.

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Party Time (Expected Value: $77)

At this point, we realized all of the recent D&D Commander decks are worth your money. Individual prices vary widely on these cards according to source, so knowing what sources to buy singles you’re interested in with these decks is incredibly important. Either way, should you jump in on TCGplayer’s Party Time price of about $51, you can expect a fixed $26 boost in value, so long as you’re after the chase cards in this product.

There are a few Commander powerhouses available in Party Time. Black Market ConnectionsBlack Market ConnectionsAt the beginning of your first main phase, choose one or more —
• Sell Contraband — Create a Treasure token. You lose 1 life.
• Buy Information — Draw a card. You lose 2 life.
• Hire a Mercenary — Create a 3/2 colorless Shapeshifter creature token with changeling. You lose 3 life. (It is every creature type.) saw a huge uptick in price following Dominaria United’s spoiler season due to a ton of tribal synergies within the set. That card is now worth about $27.50. Deep Gnome TerramancerDeep Gnome TerramancerFlash
Mold Earth — Whenever one or more lands enter under an opponent's control without being played, you may search your library for a Plains card, put it onto the battlefield tapped, then shuffle. Do this only once each turn. is another huge Commander card in white that goes for about $14. Round that up with Skullclamp, Sevinne’s ReclamationSevinne’s ReclamationReturn target permanent card with mana value 3 or less from your graveyard to the battlefield. If this spell was cast from a graveyard, you may copy this spell and may choose a new target for the copy.
Flashback {4}{W} (You may cast this card from your graveyard for its flashback cost. Then exile it.), Mother of RunesMother of Runes{T}: Target creature you control gains protection from the color of your choice until end of turn., Maskwood NexusMaskwood NexusCreatures you control are every creature type. The same is true for creature spells you control and creature cards you own that aren't on the battlefield.
{3}, {T}: Create a 2/2 blue Shapeshifter creature token with changeling. (It is every creature type.) and MutavaultMutavault{T}: Add {C}.
{1}: This land becomes a 2/2 creature with all creature types until end of turn. It's still a land. for a truly sweet deal.

There’s a lot more out There!

Is Sealed dead? Honestly, I think it’s too early to tell. Sure, there are some signs of Draft Booster boxes being a thing of the past, but Sealed product dying may be synonymous with MTG’s death altogether. While Sealed investments may come to an end, the game should go on.

We gave you the tools to check out stuff like this in the article! If you’re interested in buying a specific sealed product for yourself, this could be a great resource to check and see whether the expected value is in your favor or not. As a general rule of thumb, the older a product is, the higher the chances are that the EV for the product is not good. Scarcity is a massive reason for price jumps in Sealed products. Generally, you will lose money opening old sealed stuff, so do so with caution.