Back in August, there was a major ban (or in this case, unban) announcement which ultimately removed
Preordain
Preordain
Scry 2, then draw a card. (To scry 2, look at the top two cards of your library, then put any number of them on the bottom and the rest on top in any order.)
from the Modern banlist and
Mind’s Desire
Mind’s Desire
Shuffle your library. Then exile the top card of your library. Until end of turn, you may play that card without paying its mana cost.
Storm (When you cast this spell, copy it for each spell cast before it this turn.)
from the Legacy banlist. In reality, the unbanning of Mind’s Desire didn’t seem to change Legacy too much moving forward. The unbanning of Preordain, while helpful for decks that previously featured blue cantrips like Izzet Murktide, didn’t overly affect the Modern metagame in much of a significant way.
The real story associated with this ban announcement was that no cards from Pioneer or Modern were added to the banlist. This decision certainly left some players befuddled, especially after the dominance of both
The One Ring
The One Ring
Indestructible
When The One Ring enters, if you cast it, you gain protection from everything until your next turn.
At the beginning of your upkeep, you lose 1 life for each burden counter on The One Ring.
{T}: Put a burden counter on The One Ring, then draw a card for each burden counter on The One Ring.
and Rakdos Scam at Pro Tour Lord of the Rings. This is, in part, because there was a ton of hype leading up to the announcement, only for no cards to get banned whatsoever.
Well, players hoping to see some changes in different formats may be in luck. On October 16, there will be yet another ban announcement. The previous ban announcement made it clear that, while Wizards of the Coast strives to not make dramatic changes to Standard more than once a year, other non-rotating formats would be monitored after every major set release. This begs the question: is anything more likely to get banned now that wasn’t addressed in August? This is a difficult question to answer, but it seems like if any major format is going to see significant changes, that format will be Modern. Grief, Fury and The One Ring have caught a lot of players attention and, even if they don’t get banned and are just talked about in the announcement notes, they will definitely need to be addressed by Wizards of the Coast.
Arguments for Rakdos Bans
Since Pro Tour Lord of the Rings, the percentage of players registering Rakdos Scam at major events hasn’t changed a whole lot. Over 19% of players registered Rakdos Scam at the Pro Tour, which is an extremely large percentage in the Modern format. Similarly, MTGGoldfish showcases Rakdos at roughly 21% of the metagame over the last 30 days. To put things into comparison, Mythic Championship IV in Barcelona, the infamous
Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis
Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis
You can't spend mana to cast this spell.
Convoke, delve (Each creature you tap while casting this spell pays for {1} or one mana of that creature's color. Each card you exile from your graveyard pays for {1}.)
You may cast this card from your graveyard.
Trample
Pro Tour, saw Hogaak piloted by just over 21% of players. This difference is surprisingly minimal considering just how broken Hogaak was.
Beyond Hogaak’s metagame share, the play patterns with the deck were relatively problematic. After all, players were packing
Leyline of the Void
Leyline of the Void
If this card is in your opening hand, you may begin the game with it on the battlefield.
If a card would be put into an opponent's graveyard from anywhere, exile it instead.
and other hate cards left and right, but Hogaak was strong enough to fight through hate in a pretty effective manner. Some Hogaak players would go as far as to use Leyline of the Void in the maindeck, despite being a dead card in a handful of matchups, just to help fight the mirror in game one. While Rakdos Scam doesn’t necessarily receive the same treatment, it is a very difficult deck to hate out.
The deck is capable of using
Grief
Grief
Menace
When this creature enters, target opponent reveals their hand. You choose a nonland card from it. That player discards that card.
Evoke—Exile a black card from your hand.
and effects like
Not Dead After All
Not Dead After All
Until end of turn, target creature you control gains "When this creature dies, return it to the battlefield tapped under its owner's control, then create a Wicked Role token attached to it." (Enchanted creature gets +1/+1. When this token is put into a graveyard, each opponent loses 1 life.)
to make the opponent discard multiple cards from their hand on turn one, all while presenting a very meaningful clock. This is obviously quite strong, but the deck is also capable of playing a traditional game with cards like
Fable of the Mirror-Breaker
Fable of the Mirror-Breaker
(As this Saga enters and after your draw step, add a lore counter.)
I — Create a 2/2 red Goblin Shaman creature token with "Whenever this token attacks, create a Treasure token."
II — You may discard up to two cards. If you do, draw that many cards.
III — Exile this Saga, then return it to the battlefield transformed under your control.
and simply casting Grief like normal. The combination of a miserable turn one play experience and an inability to be easily hated out means that the deck is likely not going anywhere for the foreseeable future unless action is taken.
Read More: MTG Creature Type Confusion Dismissed as ”False Rumor”
Further Issues
As Ari Lax points out, there’s an argument that issues with Modern go beyond Rakdos Scam, though. Part of the reason Rakdos is so strong is that it forces players to have to topdeck out of a turn one Grief. Well, one of the best ways to do this is to build a midrange deck with lots of removal that can out-grind Rakdos. The problem is that out-grinding
The One Ring
The One Ring
Indestructible
When The One Ring enters, if you cast it, you gain protection from everything until your next turn.
At the beginning of your upkeep, you lose 1 life for each burden counter on The One Ring.
{T}: Put a burden counter on The One Ring, then draw a card for each burden counter on The One Ring.
is extremely difficult. This forces players to try to go under decks featuring The One Ring.
Of course, this problem is exacerbated because Creature-based aggro decks are largely a thing of the past, thanks to cards like
Fury
Fury
Double strike
When this creature enters, it deals 4 damage divided as you choose among any number of target creatures and/or planeswalkers.
Evoke—Exile a red card from your hand.
,
Orcish Bowmasters
Orcish Bowmasters
Flash
When this creature enters and whenever an opponent draws a card except the first one they draw in each of their draw steps, this creature deals 1 damage to any target. Then amass Orcs 1.
, and
Wrenn and Six
Wrenn and Six
+1: Return up to one target land card from your graveyard to your hand.
−1: Wrenn and Six deals 1 damage to any target.
−7: You get an emblem with "Instant and sorcery cards in your graveyard have retrace." (You may cast instant and sorcery cards from your graveyard by discarding a land card in addition to paying their other costs.)
punishing small Creatures. In this sense, the Modern metagame may look relatively diverse, but the unfun play patterns of Rakdos Scam and The One Ring coupled with their ability to force certain strategies out of the format help present a strong case for banning some combination of Fury, Grief, and The One Ring.
Read More: New MTG Arena Boar Typal Card Creates Five-mana Kill Combo!
Looking at Pioneer
While there is also an argument that the Pioneer format would be improved with certain pillars of the format being weakened, such as mono-green devotion with Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, the format overall is not dominated by any one strategy. Furthermore, unlike Modern, the top decks continue to wax and wane in popularity. Izzet Phoenix has gotten a lot stronger since the addition of
Sleight of Hand
Sleight of Hand
Look at the top two cards of your library. Put one of them into your hand and the other on the bottom of your library.
in Wilds of Eldraine, as has Boros Heroic with the addition of
Monstrous Rage
Monstrous Rage
Target creature gets +2/+0 until end of turn. Create a Monster Role token attached to it. (If you control another Role on it, put that one into the graveyard. Enchanted creature gets +1/+1 and has trample.)
.
Not only has this shifted the metagame in favor of these decks, but both mono-green Devotion and Rakdos Midrange have become noticeably less popular. This showcases the continuous shifts in the metagame, something Modern has been lacking for a while by comparison.
Read More: Historic Arena Championship Dominated by Various Combo Archetypes!
Potential Unbans and Predictions
Since the unbannings of Preordain and Mind’s Desire came as surprises to much of the MTG community, it may be assumed that Wizards of the Coast is more likely to consider unbanning cards moving forward. There are some cards, such as
Earthcraft
Earthcraft
Tap an untapped creature you control: Untap target basic land.
in Legacy, that have the potential to be relatively harmless. Still, unbanning combo pieces can certainly be risky.
Additionally, unbannings sometimes come with a specific purpose in mind. For example, Preordain was unbanned in part to help blue decks that were losing ground in Modern. I’d be surprised if any more unbannings occur this close to the last announcement, but stranger things have happened.
What seems most likely to happen is honestly that no format receives any changes. Even Modern, which is most likely to see changes out of any format, hasn’t been severely impacted negatively since the last announcement. I personally was hopeful for The One Ring alongside Fury and/or Grief to get banned in August, though. Given that Wizards of the Coast mentioned that they would continue to monitor the long-term play pattern of cards like The One Ring, it’s quite possible they feel a change is warranted at this point.
Whether or not Wizards decides to ban something or not, Fury, Grief, The One Ring and possibly Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx will probably need to be addressed in the notes for players to be happy.
Read More: MTG Players Rejoice As No Banlist Event Returns Soon